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Journal of Biogeography

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Biogeography's content profile, based on 37 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Climatic Niche Differentiation Accompanied The Radiation Of Leaf-Eared Mice In The Phyllotis Darwini Species Group (Sigmodontinae, Cricetidae)

Quiroga-Carmona, M.; Urquizo, J. H.; Bautista, N. M.; DElia, G.; Storz, J.

2026-05-08 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.06.723104 medRxiv
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Aimto characterize the evolution of climatic niches during the diversification of the Phyllotis darwini species group, in order to assess the extent to which divergences involved in radiation were associated with patterns of conservatism or divergence of climatic niches, and whether the differentiation found among climatic niches correlated with species phylogenetic relationships. Locationsouth-central Andes, surrounding lowlands, and Patagonia, South America. Methodsspecies climatic niches were characterized by sampling contemporaneous precipitation and temperature conditions across occurrence locations and entire distributional ranges. Climatic niches were analyzed and modeled using multivariate statistics (PCA, PERMANOVA), a maximum entropy-based algorithm, and novel methods developed to explore levels of differentiation (niche overlap test) and divergence (niche divergence test) between realized and fundamental niches. Comparative phylogenetic methods were applied using a time-calibrated phylogeny and integrating climate niche data to estimate ancestral environmental niches within geographic and environmental spaces. Resultscomparisons revealed low levels of climatic niche overlap, both among species realized niches and among their fundamental niches, suggesting high levels of niche differentiation during the diversification of Phyllotis species. Quantifications of niche overlap further showed that observed differences among species lay primarily in the multidimensional nature of climatic niches, as unidimensional quantifications exhibited higher levels of overlap. Evolved differences among species climatic niches were better fitted to a Brownian motion model of evolution, but lacked phylogenetic signal and showed no significant association with species phylogenetic distances. Main conclusionslow levels of differentiation between ancestral climatic niches suggest that the early radiation of species in the Phyllotis darwini species group was promoted by geographic isolation, whereas the more recent diversification of extant species was accompanied by climatic niche differentiation, possibly involving local adaptation to regional ecoclimatic changes associated with Quaternary glacial cycles. The spatial separation of sister species, the complete divergence of their climatic niches, and the lack of phylogenetic signal in niche differences suggest a scenario of diversification in which divergences were prompted by the spatial isolation, but also by the divergent selection exerted by regional climatic differences.

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Long-distance dispersal drives global tropical distributions in a widespread moth lineage (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae)

Taberer, T. R.; Espeland, M.; Martin, S.; Coulson, T.; Clegg, S. M.

2026-05-18 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.16.724310 medRxiv
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Understanding how global biodiversity patterns arise is a central theme of biogeography, with contemporary theory recognising the roles of both dispersal and vicariance. Genera that are broadly distributed can provide important systems for disentangling the relative influence of these processes across evolutionary timescales. However, many lesser-studied groups, particularly those in the tropics, lack a densely sampled phylogeny which hinders robust inference of their evolutionary and biogeographic history. This study investigates the global diversification and systematics of the putative pantropical moth genus Parasa Moore (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), with the aim of assessing the relative importance of dispersal and vicariance in shaping its distribution. Medium-coverage whole genome sequencing of specimens predominantly from museum collections were used to generate a globally sampled time-calibrated phylogeny of Parasa and associated genera (the Parasa-complex). Ancestral range estimation analyses were employed to infer geographical origins and possible dispersal times between bioregions. The Parasa-complex originated in Africa in the late Oligocene ([~]24 Ma) and, through a series of long-distance dispersal events during the early-mid Miocene, expanded into Asia ([~]23 Ma) and the Americas ([~]21 Ma). Across all regions, dispersal was the dominant process shaping present-day distributions, with a limited role of vicariance in some subregions. Phylogenetic analyses further demonstrated that Parasa is not monophyletic, with multiple independent lineages contributing to its apparent pantropical distribution. These findings highlight a central role of long-distance dispersal in generating certain global distributions. The results support a dynamic model of range evolution involving rapid Miocene dispersal and subsequent regional diversification. In addition, the non-monophyly of Parasa requires substantial taxonomic revision, underscoring the importance of robust phylogenetic frameworks for interpreting global biodiversity patterns.

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Landscape heterogeneity as a main driver of avian population dynamics

Malinowska, K.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Kuczynski, L.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726359 medRxiv
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The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

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Climate change is predicted to simplify seed dispersal networks in the Cerrado

Rigacci, E. D. B.; Campagnoli, M.; Vizentin-Bugoni, J.; Christianini, A. V.; Peralta, G.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.30.721967 medRxiv
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O_LIAnimal-mediated seed dispersal is key for the maintenance and functioning of tropical ecosystems. Specifically, in the Cerrado, the largest Neotropical savanna and a global biodiversity hotspot, nearly 60% of plant species rely on animals for dispersal. C_LIO_LIClimate change threatens these interactions by affecting species distributions, reshaping communities, and potentially decoupling plants from their dispersers. Anticipating how such disruptions may alter seed dispersal networks is particularly relevant for understanding the resilience of future tropical ecosystems. C_LIO_LIHere, we combined empirical data on 139 pairwise plant-frugivore interactions with species distribution forecasts to build probabilistic interaction matrices under present and future climate scenarios, which were then used to construct 6,221 local seed dispersal networks. Using ecological niche modelling, we tested how climate change influences species range size and centroid displacement. Then, we evaluated whether such changes translate into losses of pairwise plant-frugivore co-occurrence. Finally, we investigated how these changes in occurrence overlap may affect key structural properties of future local seed dispersal networks. C_LIO_LIWe forecast that by the 2070s, under a business-as-usual climate scenario, species are likely to contract their ranges by 56 {+/-} 33% and shift their distribution centroids by 88 {+/-} 57 km within the Cerrado, leading to a 27 {+/-} 29% loss in plant-frugivore co-occurrence mainly driven by reductions in plant species distributions. At the community level, these losses will lead to smaller and more nested networks and specialized, indicating a structural simplification of seed dispersal systems in the Cerrado. C_LIO_LISynthesis: By combining empirical data on animal-mediated seed dispersal with forecasts of species distributions, we found that climate change may simplify frugivore-plant interaction networks in the Cerrado by decreasing species ranges and co-occurrence of partners. Our study demonstrates that future climate may pose a threat not only to species distributions but also to ecological interactions, such as seed dispersal, that are key to enabling climate-tracking by plants. Thus, preventing the simplification of interaction networks will be essential to conserve biodiversity in species-rich regions. C_LI

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Navigating a dynamic winterscape: habitat composition and individual variability shape daily movement in wintering common cranes in western India

Baraiya, H. L.; Baroth, A.; Kumar, R. S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.17.725127 medRxiv
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BackgroundWintering migratory birds must balance energetic requirements, resource availability, and disturbance in increasingly human-modified landscapes. However, individual-level variability in daily movement and winter space use remains poorly understood in South Asian populations of the common crane. We investigated how seasonal dynamics, landscape composition, and individual differences structure winter movement ecology in a semi-arid agro-wetland system in western India. MethodsWe analysed high-resolution GPS telemetry data from multiple tagged cranes tracked across three consecutive winters. Daily movement distances were modelled using mixed-effects approaches to partition variance within and among individuals and among winters. Daily movement trajectories were evaluated using non-linear temporal terms. Landscape predictors, including cropland proportion, built-up area, and habitat heterogeneity, were incorporated to assess environmental drivers. Winter range distributions were estimated using autocorrelation-informed kernel density estimation within a continuous-time movement modelling framework. ResultsMost variation in daily movement occurred within individuals rather than among them, indicating strong behavioural flexibility. Interannual differences explained substantial variance, suggesting sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. Daily movement distance followed a non-linear seasonal pattern consistent with shifts in the profitability of agricultural resources over winter. Cropland proportion and landscape evenness were negatively associated with movement distance, whereas a high proportion of built-up areas increased daily movement distance, reflecting a trade-off between resource concentration and anthropogenic disturbance. Winter range distribution size varied markedly both within individuals across years and among individuals within seasons. ConclusionWinter movement and space use in common cranes are predominantly context-dependent and environmentally driven. Seasonal dynamics, agricultural landscapes, and human disturbance jointly structure movement patterns, with limited but consistent individual differences. Multi-year, individual-based telemetry provides a comprehensive understanding of winter spatial strategies in dynamic semi-arid agro-wetland systems.

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Potential for Climate Change induced extinction of the Sky Island Species Mount Graham Red Squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis)

Gibson, E.; Kantar, M. B.; Runck, B.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.725054 medRxiv
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Sky islands are high-elevation ecosystems surrounded by lowland habitats that create isolated environments with distinct climatic conditions. These factors have driven the evolution of many endemic species, separated from their larger, contiguous populations. An Individual-Based Model (IBM) was used to simulate population dynamics by modeling the behaviors and interactions of Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis (Mount Graham Red Squirrel) a subspecies of the American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) that is endemic to the Pinaleno Mountains in southeastern Arizona. This approach can help predict future population trends based on historical species data leading to better conservation decisions. Using species-specific ecological preferences--including temperature, precipitation, and vegetation indices (NDVI)--an IBM was developed to simulate population dynamics and spatial distribution projections through 2100. Climate change projections, based on the best- and worst-case scenarios outlined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment, were incorporated to assess potential future population trends under changing environmental conditions. The population faces a 45-62% probability of extinction by 2100, with a significant risk of extinction within the next 50 years. A translocation experiment was conducted to evaluate the viability of relocating individuals to the Chiricahua Mountains, another sky island with a larger habitable area. However, the risk of extinction remains even higher (87-89%) due to environmental disturbances affecting both the Chiricahua and Pinaleno regions. This highlights the challenges of conservation efforts in the face of climate change and emphasizes the need for targeted management strategies to preserve this critically endangered subspecies.

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Rethinking the movement ecology of Andean bears: temperature-driven cathemerality and seasonal space-use cycles

Castellanos, F. X.; Jackson, D.; Mezzini, S.; Brito, J.; Castellanos, A.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.720697 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus), South Americas only ursid, is one of the worlds most elusive large mammals, making movement data collection exceptionally rare. Addressing this gap, we present the largest telemetry dataset ever assembled, spanning 19 individuals tracked across three Ecuadorian National Parks over two decades, paired with a novel analytical approach. MethodsWe integrated Continuous-Time Movement Models (CTMM), Auto-correlated Kernel Density Estimators (AKDEs), Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and a diel niche theoretical framework to mitigate biases previously unaccounted for the species in telemetry studies. Fine-scale AKDEs and non-linear movement metrics were calculated to understand seasonal space use and movement behaviors. Speed and diffusion from CTMM and behavioral states from HMM were modelled with environmental covariates to investigate which conditions shape diel and seasonal activity. ResultsPopulation mean home range was 138.2 km2 (95% Confidence Intervals 78.7-225.5), with males (239.8 km2; 182.8-307.5), significantly exceeding females (58.5 km2; 35.5-90.3). Notably, three females exhibited ranges comparable to some males. Weekly and monthly AKDEs uncovered cyclic home range dynamics potentially driven by resource availability, with contractions around corn harvests, mortino and achupalla fruiting, and expansions during paramo transitions. Decoupling speed from diffusion rates showed region-specific behaviors: intensive patch exploitation in Llanganates, broad exploratory ranging in Cayambe-Coca, and suppressed female locomotion in Cotacachi-Cayapas. Statistical analyses identified temperature as a key diel modulator and precipitation as the seasonal driver. Foraging probability increased between 2:00-6:00, large displacements between 7:00-14:00, and nocturnal movement rose significantly under colder conditions. Across diel hypothesis frameworks, bears were classified as cathemeral rather than strictly diurnal, corroborated by camera-trap records from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. ConclusionsWe propose a cathemeral diel phenotype that responds to thermal fluctuations and situates Andean bears within a broader ursid context of thermoregulatory niche plasticity. This dataset reveals unprecedented resolution of regional and sex specific behaviors that will facilitate and accelerate comparative studies in rapidly changing Andean landscapes. By releasing this long-term dataset as an open resource, we provide a foundation for climate-resilient conservation strategies. More broadly, we advocate for data democratization and invite collaboration.

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Sensitivity of tree species demography to climate and competition across their range

Vieira, W.; MacDonald, A.; Gravel, D.

2026-05-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.03.722548 medRxiv
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Theory predicts that demographic performance should peak at the core of species ranges and decrease toward their limits. Yet, empirical correlations between population growth rate and species distribution remain weak for most tree species. Part of the problem may arise from the difficulty of integrating multiple demographic processes across the complex life cycle of a forest, and from the significant variability among individuals and locations. It remains unclear if the mismatch between performance and distribution arises from modelling limitations or if climate is simply a poor predictor of species performance across distributions. Here, rather than asking whether demographic performance correlates with species distributions, we ask how climate and competition jointly shape population growth rate for 31 tree species across eastern North America. By combining flexible nonlinear hierarchical models for growth, survival, and recruitment with explicit uncertainty propagation, we use Integral Projection Models to address key gaps in previous studies. Perturbation analyses revealed that population growth rate was consistently more sensitive to mean annual temperature than to conspecific or heterospecific competition across all species. We further examined how sensitivities to climate and competition varied across species thermal ranges. The dominance of climate over competition increased toward both cold and hot range limits, while sensitivity to competition generally declined from cold to hot limits. Notably, these patterns emerged along the continental thermal gradient shared across species rather than within each species individual range, suggesting that range-edge demographic responses may arise as a community-level phenomenon. Across species, the largest source of variability remained the local plot conditions captured by random effects, likely reflecting differences in soil conditions, drainage, and disturbance history. Together, these results may provide a mechanistic pathway underlying the performance declines predicted by range-limit theories, and offer a basis for understanding how forest populations and communities may reorganize in response to ongoing climate change and shifting disturbance regimes.

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Human land-use change drives co-occurrence of ecologically similar avian aerial insectivores in Southeast Asia

Garvin, A. M.; Sudoko, S. S.; Yahya, N. K.; Maruji, N. A.; Chai, R. R.; bin Dakog, K. A.; Kass, J. M.; Scordato, E. S.

2026-05-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726292 medRxiv
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AimHuman land-use change contributes to biodiversity declines, but also creates new niches that facilitate novel biotic interactions. These interactions can reshape ecological communities and ecosystem function, yet remain poorly understood. Swiftlets and swallows in Southeast Asia present a classic example: coexistence is facilitated by fine-scale diet partitioning, with population sizes historically limited by available nesting substrates. However, several species now nest on manmade structures, particularly "nest farms" built to harvest edible swiftlet nests. We evaluated whether land-use change, especially the spread of nest farms, is leading to breakdowns in niche partitioning and increased competition among six sympatric swiftlets and swallows. LocationNorthern Borneo MethodsWe calculated geographic niche overlap using species distribution models (SDMs) with different environmental predictors, hypothesizing greater overlap when land-use variables were included. We then implemented joint species distribution models (JSDMs) to partition shared environmental responses from potential biotic interactions, predicting that competition would emerge as negative residual correlations. We used sightings from citizen-science datasets and structured surveys to evaluate the influence of climate, land-use, nest farms, morphology, and foraging behavior on species occurrences. ResultsSDMs that included land-use variables showed high niche overlap, suggesting that human activity homogenizes niches. The optimal JSDM, based on structured survey data, identified distance to nest farms as the strongest predictor of occurrence for all species, with species showing both positive and negative responses. Morphology and behavior had small effects, and residual correlations were weak, indicating limited unexplained biotic interactions. Main conclusionsHuman activity, through the creation of artificial nesting sites, broadly drives co-occurrence of swallows and swiftlets across our study region. These effects appear to operate primarily through environmental filtering rather than direct competition. Our findings reveal substantial and complex impacts of land-use change and anthropogenic nest sites on the distribution and composition of aerial insectivore communities.

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Climate Gradients and Habitat Discontinuity Structure Genetic Variation in a Spring-Specialist Plant

Weiss, M.; Faske, T. M.; Holeski, L. M.

2026-05-12 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.08.723645 medRxiv
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Background and AimsGroundwater-dependent ecosystems support disproportionate biodiversity in arid regions, yet the population genetics of spring-specialist plants remains poorly understood. Here, we present the first species-wide genetic dataset for crimson monkeyflower ( Mimulus verbenaceus, Phrymaceae), a spring-specialist plant distributed in seeps, springs, and associated riparian areas across desert regions of North America. MethodsUsing genome-wide reduced representation sequencing data consisting of 10,760 SNPs from 175 individuals across 17 populations, we characterized the patterns of genetic diversity using FST and Neis D. Population structure was assessed using ADMIXTURE and PCA. We examined the contributions of climate to range-wide genetic variation in crimson monkeyflower using redundancy analysis. Key ResultsPatterns of genetic differentiation were more consistent with those of spring-specialist animal taxa than those of upland plants or generalist riparian plants. We found strong population structure at both broad regional scales and at fine local scales. While riparian connectivity influenced local patterns of diversity, adaptation to local climatic variation was more influential at regional scales, with temperature, relative humidity, and a monsoon-driven climate gradient structuring genetic differentiation. ConclusionsOur findings highlight the distinctive influence of isolated perennial groundwater sources, as well as adaptation to climate, in shaping genetic variation in this spring-specialist plant. These findings suggest that spring-specialist plants deserve special consideration in ecological theory, management, and conservation.

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Woodland age, ancient trees, and population size as proxies of genetic diversity

Mattana, E.; Atkinson, N.; Martinez-Velasco, I.; Oliva-Garcia, D.; Ramos, I.; Truchot-Taillefer, C.; Blake, O.; Chapman, T.; Mastretta-Yanes, A.

2026-05-18 plant biology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725641 medRxiv
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Climatic and biogeographic variables are often used as a proxy for tree genetic diversity, but local factors can also influence it. We propose that woodland age, presence of ancient trees, and population size could impact genetic diversity. Using the RBG Kew UK National Tree Seed Project as a study case, we examined how these factors are accounted for during seed collection. We found 42% of tree seed collections come from ancient woodlands and that 8.4% overlap with ancient trees. Sampled forest patches size ranges from few individuals to several thousand. We then carried out a pilot to examine the role of population size on functional traits variation, testing the relationship between population size and seed germination and seedling thermal stress sensitivity in three populations of the Betula pubescens Ehrh. complex. We found that seeds and seedlings from larger populations showed higher fitness and stress resistance. Our results highlight the importance of local factors to predict variation in functional traits, relevant for tree resilience. Existing seed collections of native species stored in conservation seed banks offer a valuable resource to explore these factors and improve our understanding of genetic diversity in tree populations, with implications for biodiversity conservation and forestry production.

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Landscape-scale predictors of mammal abundance and species richness across an extensive Queensland tropical savannas gradient

Kutt, A. S.; Fraser, H. S.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.1101/2025.09.22.677950 medRxiv
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The small mammals in the tropical savannas of northern Australia, have undergone a degree of change in recent decades, best documented in the Northern Territory. Data is limited from northern Queensland and though the same trends are assumed, the topographic and climatic features differ substantially. In this study we examined data systematically collected from 725 sites between 1998-2012 in three bioregions representing a climatic gradient: from semi-arid to monsoon tropical savannas. We investigated via information-theoretic models and model averaging, the relationship between five mammal groupings and three landscape variables (fractional cover green, elevation and vegetation diversity) to elucidate any consistent or different patterns in the mammal fauna. Key patterns included relationships with increasing elevation (critical weight range species richness positively associated with elevation, rodent species richness negatively associated), increasing rodent and dasyurid species richness with vegetation diversity, and lower macropod and dasyurids abundance with increasing fractional cover green. These relationships underscore a need to consider mammal conservation in Queensland with more nuance than in the more topographically inert Northern Territory. Management strategies need to be more attuned to taxonomic and regional differences, to prevent perverse outcomes.

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Recent and high grazing pressure limit cork oak seedling resprouting and survival

Wadud, A. I.; Craveiro, J.; Erroi, S.; Alcobia, S.; Branco, M.; Bugalho, M. N.; Vaz, P. G.

2026-05-06 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.20.689419 medRxiv
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Regeneration failure is a bottleneck in Mediterranean oak woodlands. Cattle can hinder or promote recruitment, depending on grazing location, timing and intensity. Herbivory theory predicts that repeated defoliation and trampling deplete seedling reserves, whereas resprouting can extend survival; yet field studies rarely separate intensity from recency or combine long-run grazing records with individual fates and microhabitat/climate context. We test how management-driven heterogeneity shapes cork oak seedling survival and resprouting by combining 12 years of paddock-level grazing records with individual tracking of 8431 seedlings across 24 paddocks. Bayesian mixed-effects survival models related seedling lifespan to grazing history x pressure (moderate [≤]150; high >150 LSU ha-1 days yr-1) and to key covariates, including seedling height, resprouting status, shrub distance, cattle dung counts (as a proxy of very recent grazing), and 1-month SPEI (as recent water balance). Bayesianlogistic mixed models were then used to relate resprouting probability to grazing treatments. Survival was lower in grazed than ungrazed paddocks and declined along management gradients: median lifespan fell from 460 (moderate grazing) to 256 days (high), and from 460 (old grazing; two-year absence) to 199 days (recent). A two-year cattle absence increased survival under moderate pressure but was insufficient where pressure was high, indicating legacy effects and that recovery windows must scale with pressure. Resprouting dominated persistence: resprouters lived >5x longer than non-resprouters (2351 vs 460 days). Taller seedlings lived longer, and shrub proximity conferred a modest benefit. Climate modulated outcomes: wetter recent periods (higher SPEI) markedly boosted survival. Cattle reduced the odds of resprouting, with the strongest penalty under recent use. By disentangling grazing intensity from recency and linking both to seedling survival and resprouting, we show why recruitment falters under continuous, heavy grazing and when it can recover. Because drought intensifies cattle impacts, managers should combine moderate stocking rates with multi-year rest periods to rebuild oak bud banks and below-ground reserves; a two-year hiatus can help under moderate pressure but appears insufficient where pressure is high. Aligning rotational plans with drought outlooks and tracking simple field cues (seedling height, recent resprouting) offers a practical path to reconcile production with regeneration in Mediterranean wood-pastures. HighlightsO_LITwelve years of grazing records linked to 8431 cork oak seedling fates C_LIO_LIRecent grazing reduced survival and resprouting versus a two-year cattle absence C_LIO_LIHigh grazing shortened lifespan; two-year rest helped only under moderate pressure C_LIO_LIResprouting was the strongest survival correlate; resprouters lived over 5x longer C_LIO_LIWetter short-term water balance increased cork oak seedling longevity C_LI

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Cavity-nesting bees combine forest nesting habitats with surrounding floral resources in a subtropical forest diversity experiment

Zhang, T.-T.; Martini, M.; Yang, J.-J.; Chen, G.-A.; Cao, H.-X.; Yu, Q.-Y.; Rehling, F.; Wang, M.-Q.; Orr, M. C.; Sann, M.; Fornoff, F. C.; Chen, J.-T.; Zhou, Q.-S.; Niu, Z.-Q.; Grozinger, C.; Liu, X.; Klein, A.-M.; Zhu, C.-D.; Luo, A.

2026-05-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726496 medRxiv
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Wild bees face declines, and forests may serve as critical habitats for pollinators. However, how forest composition and the associated floral environment shape pollen provisioning and resource partitioning among cavity-nesting bees remains poorly understood. Here, we leveraged BEF-China, a large-scale subtropical forest biodiversity experiment with experimentally controlled plant (tree and shrub) communities, to investigate how forest composition and spatial context shape pollen provisioning, resource partitioning, and reproductive success of cavity-nesting bees. We used DNA metabarcoding to analyze floral composition of pollen provisioned by five cavity-nesting bee species, with samples collected from BEF-China across three years (2022- 2024). By comparing pollen taxonomic composition from whole-nest pooled samples and individual brood-cell samples with the experimentally planted species pool, we characterized dietary patterns and temporal dynamics of five bee species. Bees primarily relied on floral resources from the surrounding landscape, with planted trees providing essential but temporally restricted pollen supplements during specific phenological stages. Co-occurring bee species exhibited staggered nesting phenology and distinct dietary preferences for different plant families, with fine-scale resource differentiation even during periods of phenological overlap. Our results suggest that managed forests support cavity-nesting bees by providing critical woody floral resources during specific phenological gaps and offering stable nesting environments. To mitigate pollinator declines, forest management should prioritize maintaining diverse, phenologically complementary flowering vegetation within and surrounding forest stands. This ensures temporal continuity of pollen availability throughout the nesting season, which is particularly crucial for restoring pollinator services in simplified forest landscapes.

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Contrasting trends in forest growth and mortality of major European tree species under increasing climatic stress

Bravo-Hernandez, M.; Astigarraga, J.; Suvanto, S.; Grajera-Antolin, C.; Rodriguez-Rey, M.; Vila-Cabrera, A.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Zavala, M. A.; Esquivel-Muelbert, A.; Tijerin-Trivino, J.; Gomez-Aparicio, L.; Barrere, J.; Cruz-Alonso, V.; Fridman, J.; Kunstler, G.; Talarczyk, A.; Schelhaas, M.-J.; Villen-Perez, S.; Ruiz-Benito, P.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.725878 medRxiv
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Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as primary terrestrial carbon sinks. While some studies suggest that global warming enhances forest productivity, a growing body of evidence highlights detrimental impact primarily driven by increased water stress. Yet the extent to which positive effects of climate change offset its negative impacts on tree species productivity remains unclear at large spatial extents. We assessed forest growth and mortality for the 21 most abundant tree species in Europe using National Forest Inventory data from more than 50,000 plots and 700,000 trees to disentangle the relative importance of climate and forest structure. Specifically, we examined how vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies across species climatic edges and stand developmental stages affect forest growth and mortality occurrence and intensity (i.e. whether mortality occurred and the amount of basal area lost). Then, we aggregated the responses across species and separately for broad-leaved and needle-leaved species to assess whether forest growth and mortality differed between major functional groups. Although the importance of forest growth and mortality drivers varied markedly among species, climate had a stronger influence on mortality than on growth, particularly in needle-leaved species. Forest growth declined and mortality increased along VPD anomaly in most species and forests studied. Responses were most pronounced at arid species edges in early-stage broad-leaved forests and at wet edges in late-stage needle-leaved forests, where differences between functional groups were also highest. We evidence the need to parametrise species-specific models of forest growth and mortality across large spatial extents to better understand and predict effects of climate change on forest productivity. In addition, our results emphasize the importance of improving the understanding of forest mortality processes given the strong influence of climate on mortality, while also further studying vulnerable populations to climate change in arid edges of species distributions.

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Agricultural intensification favours an introduced bumble bee over its native congener through differences in foraging range, habitat association, and lineage continuity

Melanson, J. B.; Kelly, T. T.; Clermont, N.; Koch, J. B. U.; Kremen, C.

2026-05-12 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.07.723627 medRxiv
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O_LIAgricultural intensification can support the expansion of introduced species which are highly adapted to human-modified landscapes, but the mechanisms by which this occurs are often unclear. C_LIO_LIHere we investigate the spatial ecology of a rapidly expanding introduced bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) and a native congener (B. mixtus) in agricultural landscapes of southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We used microsatellite genotyping and spatially explicit capture-recapture models to compare the foraging distance of the two species, and fitted hierarchical models to compare their abundance, behaviour (nest searching vs foraging), and lineage survival as a function of landscape composition and configuration. C_LIO_LIWe found that B. impatiens had a broader foraging range than B. mixtus, and that its colony/worker abundance were positively associated with the surrounding area of residential gardens, but decreased relative to B. mixtus abundance in response to increasing seminatural area. In contrast, B. mixtus colony abundance decreased in landscapes with a greater area of intensively managed berry crops. C_LIO_LIWe observed fewer B. impatiens queens per survey in landscapes with more low-disturbance landcover, and hypothesize space use of this species could be shaped by concentration on potential nesting habitat. Consistent with this observation, nest searching behaviour was more common for B. impatiens queens, while B. mixtus queens were primarily observed foraging, suggesting these two species derive different value from agricultural landscapes during colony establishment. C_LIO_LIFinally, we found that the rate of lineage re-capture between 2022 colonies and 2023 spring queens was nearly 10-fold higher for B. impatiens than for B. mixtus, indicating a greater capacity of the introduced species to complete its life cycle in agro-natural landscape mosaics. C_LIO_LIOur results suggest that differences in spatial ecology may contribute to the differential success of these two species in human-modified landscapes, and provide insight into the mechanisms by which land-use change shapes community composition. C_LI O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=184 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/723627v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (62K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1e72eacorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@a958a0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f970b6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@156f522_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Graphical abstract. Coloured diagrams of B. mixtus and B. impatiens are credited to Elaine Evans and the Xerces Society, with permission.

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Rare plants can make an important contribution to sustain local biodiversity through biological interactions

Garcia, M. B.; Miranda-Cebrian, H.; Verdu, M.; Martin, D.; Blasco-Zumeta, J.; Jarne, M.; Olesen, J.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725624 medRxiv
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Plants, as structural elements of habitats, contribute greatly to the maintenance of local biodiversity through their biological interactions. In this study we explore whether their rarity, according to Rabinowitzs (1981) three criteria, is related to the richness and diversity of arthropods and other plants they are associated to, in a gypsum-rich steppe. We first analysed whether the geographic abundance and ecological specialisation of 32 characteristic and dominant plant species are related to the diversity (richness and phylogenetic diversity (MPD)) and degree of local specialisation of arthropods associated with them (1,694 taxa). Then, we focused on a non endemic and non specialized plant in the study area (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides) to explore the effect of population size on two types of interactions: aerial arthropods and plant facilitation. Results indicate that: 1) plant species abundance (geographical range) is not related to the richness or MPD of communities of associated arthropods, 2) plant species ecological specialization (edaphic endemisms or gypsophiles) do not contribute differentially to the maintenance of singular arthropod communities, and 3) the community of aerial arthropods and plants interacting with K. ceratoides in a small population are not necessarily less diverse than those in patches of similar size in a large population. Results also revealed that the two plant species with fewer interactions (one rare, one widespread) do show the highest singularity in their interactions with arthropods. Our study illustrates the important contribution of rare plants to the conservation of local biodiversity.

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Home range size and population density are negatively correlated in wild felids globally

Bugaud, N.; Anile, S.; Moraru, A.; Devillard, S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725626 medRxiv
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AimHome range size is a fundamental aspect of animal spatial ecology, and understanding the factors that shape it is important for conservation purposes. Several hypotheses, based on energy needs or competition, assume that home range size negatively correlates with population density. However, this pattern has been little investigated on a global scale, and it remains unclear whether it would stand at both intra- and interspecific levels. To fill this gap, we conducted a global exploration of this relationship at the level of an animal family. Location: Global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Wild Felidae. MethodsIndividual home range size records (n = 1022) and population density estimates (n = 1061) were retrieved from the literature for 23 felid species across the world. We first investigated the interspecific relationship by modelling the median home range size of a species as a function of its median population density. To study the intraspecific relationship, we spatially merged data points based on their spatial or temporal proximity. We then applied a mixed-effects linear model using species as a random factor. ResultsWe found that home range size was negatively associated with population density, at both interspecific (-1.323 {+/-} 0.180, p < 0.001) and intraspecific levels (-0.569 {+/-} 0.201 to - 0.537 {+/-} 0.201 depending on the merging approach, p < 0.01). Landscape features were also predictors of home range size, without confounding the effect of population density. Main conclusionsSeveral processes likely govern the relationship between home range size and population density: differences in body mass between species may drive the interspecific relationship, whereas the intraspecific pattern is probably explained by conspecific competition. Although more research is needed to quantify their relative contribution, our study highlights a worldwide ecological pattern that exists at multiple biological levels in the wild.

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Persistent Invasion Risk: Modeling the near-Current and Future Distribution of Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus (Weber,1991) across the Philippine Archipelago

Bate, J.-M.; Poblete, A.; Dagamac, N. H.

2026-05-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.10.724170 medRxiv
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Philippine freshwater ecosystems are considered one of the most diverse ecosystems harboring numerous fish species. However, in the Philippines, these ecosystems are threatened by invasive species that potentially disrupt ecological balance. In this study, we focused on the vermiculated sailfin catfish Pterygoplichthys disjunctivus, an invasive aquarium species reported in several Philippine aquatic ecosystems. Despite its documented spread, its potential range under a rapidly changing climate remains poorly understood for the country. Hence, in this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to predict its near-current and future habitat suitability in the Philippines. Using 11 reported occurrences, our model showed high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.882{+/-} .034, TSS = 0.7394 {+/-} 0.154, SEDI = 0.971 {+/-} 0.019). Across the current and future scenarios, slope was the primary contributor (78.7% - 81.3%), followed by BIO 10 or the mean temperature of the warmest quarter(18% - 27.8%), and flow accumulation (0% - 5.2%). However, for the SSP126 scenario, BIO10 is projected to triple by 2050 (18 - 48%). Current projections identify high-risk regions, particularly central Luzon (Laguna de Bay and Lake Taal), the Cagayan River Valley, and portions of eastern Mindanao (Agusan Marsh and Lake Mainit). Sankey transition analysis confirms a high habitat stability rate (>73%) for high-suitability pixels in both SSPs, indicating persistent invasion risk. Overall, our study provides a framework for invasive species management and contributes to the conservation of Philippine aquatic ecosystems.

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On the stock structure bias of the space-time fidelity of mark-recapture studies

Witting, L.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.14.725068 medRxiv
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Mark-recapture analyses on the delineation of natural populations between areas often assume random sampling, with a between/within (B/W) area resighting ratio that declines towards zero as the population components of two areas become more-and-more isolated from one another, with fewer-and-fewer individuals mixing between areas. I use an individual based population model split in two areas to simulate this result, analysing also for the potential effects of the space-time fidelity of the mark-recapture sampling in the areas. I find that small B/W resighting ratios--that traditionally is taken as evidence of population isolation--can easily be observed within a completely mixing population if a random sampling scheme is restricted in space and/or time. Random sampling within restricted areas and time windows is not sufficient to estimate mixing rates and population isolation between areas, unless the resighting rates are analysed by a method that accounts both for the space-time fidelity of the scientific sampling scheme and the space-time fidelity of the distributional behaviour of the individuals in the population.