Journal of Biogeography

Aim: Given that much of Earth's biodiversity is contained within species, inferring intraspecific genetic diversity and identifying its ecological correlates is essential for understanding evolutionary processes and informing conservation. Here, we investigate broad-scale variation in species-level mitochondrial genetic diversity and evaluate the relative importance of alternative ecological hypotheses proposed to explain it. Location: Brazilian Atlantic Forest, Iberian Peninsula, northwestern Africa, Arabian Peninsula, Madagascar and Australian Monsoonal Tropics. Taxon: Amphibians and reptiles Methods: We assembled a comprehensive dataset by integrating and manually curating mitochondrial sequences, occurrence records, environmental data and species traits from multiple open-access sources. We used multiple mitochondrial genes to estimate mean nucleotide diversity for each study species and quantified regional variation in genetic diversity. We then used random forests models to evaluate the relative importance of selected variables representing hypotheses related to water-energy availability, topography, historical climatic stability, land-cover characteristics, species geographic characteristics, life-history traits, evolutionary history and conservation status. Results: The final dataset comprised 247 amphibians and 295 reptiles, for which 43 and 52 explanatory variables were evaluated, respectively. Overall, the strongest support was found for hypotheses related to life-history traits, topographic heterogeneity and water-energy availability. In amphibians, higher genetic diversity was associated with smaller body size and greater environmental heterogeneity, particularly broader elevational and precipitation gradients. In reptiles, genetic diversity was primarily associated with life-history traits, with species of smaller body size and lower reproductive output exhibiting higher diversity. Long-term climatic stability showed comparatively little explanatory power for both taxa. Main conclusions: Our comprehensive study demonstrates that integrating extensive manual data curation with comparative macrogenetic analyses provides a robust framework for identifying broad-scale ecological correlates of mitochondrial genetic diversity. These findings improve our understanding of the factors associated with contemporary patterns of genetic diversity and provide a foundation for future conservation assessments in data-limited systems.

As ecosystems face rapid environmental change, understanding the interplay between landscape structure, genetic diversity, and adaptive potential is critical for predicting resilience. We investigated how biome-specific connectivity and environmental heterogeneity mediate adaptive strategies and resilience in the tropical rainbowfish (Melanotaenia splendida splendida) across contrasting rainforest and savannah ecosystems in tropical Australia. Using an integrative framework combining genomic, morphological, and environmental analyses, we inferred that hydroclimatic variation has been a key driver of genetic and phenotypic divergence. Rainforest populations exhibited strong local adaptation to fragmented, stable environments, while savannah populations showed less genomic differentiation and morphological divergence, patterns consistent with weaker local adaptation. We hypothesise that greater reliance on phenotypic plasticity may facilitate adaptive responses in savannah populations, reflecting their exposure to more connected and variable environments. Variance partitioning highlighted the contrasting roles of neutral and adaptive processes across biomes, with implications for managing resilience in freshwater systems under climate change. Our findings underscore the trade-offs between connectivity, local adaptation, and plasticity, providing a model for understanding adaptation and resilience across diverse ecosystems.

The palaeogeographic history of the Neotropics has inspired multiple diversification models, emphasizing either the Andes or Amazonia as primary drivers of biodiversity. However, the extensive Pebas wetland system that covered western Amazonia during the Miocene has gained attention as a potential barrier to dispersal and diversification. This system may have contributed to the modern diversity imbalance between the Andes and Amazonia, known as the Gentry pattern. Most evidence for this hypothesis comes from isolated case studies and fossils. Here, we conduct a meta-analysis including 1,361 species of Neotropical butterflies to evaluate the role of the Pebas wetland on the dynamics of dispersal and diversification. We found that Andean- and Amazonian-centred clades show complementary but temporarily distinct biogeographic patterns. High Andean diversity reflects an Andean origin, with early occupancy and diversification occurring within the Andes, followed by post-Pebas dispersal into Amazonia. By contrast, Amazonian-centred clades, reflect an Amazonian origin, with an early diversification in Amazonia and subsequent post-Pebas colonization of the Andes. While several clades show little evidence of Pebas influence, our study suggests that the Pebas wetland did not uniformly restrict diversification, but rather selectively constrained dispersal between the Andes and Amazonia, preventing simultaneous diversification in both regions and thereby creating a diversity imbalance that characterizes the modern Neotropic.

Rapid diversification can generate regional biodiversity through ancestral polymorphism, admixture, and ecological differentiation, while leaving complex genomic signals. We analysed whole-genome variation in 325 butterflies, including 166 individuals of the Papilio bianor species complex and six outgroup species, to reconstruct lineage relationships and demographic history. Nuclear genomic analyses recovered three major clades corresponding to the recognized species and placed the island lineage as sister to continental P. bianor. Analyses of 18,635 autosomal window trees revealed extensive genealogical discordance, with incomplete lineage sorting predominating among continental lineages and the strongest introgression signals involving island related ancestry. Demographic modelling supported early island continental divergence followed by continental diversification and ancient admixture. The best fitting fastsimcoal2 model inferred an admixed origin of the Eastern China lineage, while BPP analyses supported ancient island-related introgression into the Eastern China ancestor, Western Himalaya and southwestern Thailand. Peripheral populations exhibited pronounced genetic differentiation and distinct demographic histories; Western Himalaya additionally showed mitochondrial affinity with Yaeyama despite its placement within the Himalayan nuclear lineage. Together, these findings suggest that introgression among deeply differentiated ancestral populations and incomplete lineage sorting during rapid divergence jointly shaped lineage diversity in the P. bianor complex. This study provides an empirical framework for investigating how lineage diversity emerges rapidly during the early stages of speciation, particularly in groups with deep ancestral population structure.

Aim To investigate how repeated historical connections between continental islands and the mainland have shaped the phylogeographic structure and genetic diversity of populations, using the widespread water strider Aquarius paludum as a model. Location Japan Taxon Water strider Aquarius paludum (Insecta: Hemiptera: Gerridae) Methods We analysed mitochondrial (COI and COII) and nuclear (ITS1) DNA sequences from populations across the Japanese archipelago and the Eurasian continent. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses were used to reconstruct phylogeographic structure and infer demographic history. Results Western Japanese populations exhibited nucleotide diversity comparable to that of continental populations despite their insular distribution. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses identified two major mitochondrial haplogroups (A and B) that frequently co-occurred across the Japanese archipelago. Haplogroup A, which is rare on the Eurasian continent, occurred at high frequency in Japan and showed pronounced isolation by distance, whereas haplogroup B showed only weak but significant isolation by distance and was significantly more frequent in populations closer to the coast. These contrasting spatial patterns within species indicate distinct demographic histories for the two mitochondrial lineages. Main conclusion Repeated colonization from the Eurasian continent and the long-term coexistence of mitochondrial lineages with different demographic histories have shaped the pattern of genetic diversity of A. paludum in the Japanese archipelago. Our findings exemplify how continental islands can accumulate genetic diversity through lineage accumulation and secondary contact, which produces an intraspecific phylogeographic pattern comparable to those observed during an early phase of the taxon cycle between species.

Aim Regional climate-change refugia - areas where abiotic conditions related to hydrology and topography sustain unique plant communities despite an otherwise unsuitable regional macroclimate - have been essential for maintaining biodiversity through past climatic transitions. At fine spatial scales, regional refugia can also contain microrefugia, where canopy structure and topography strongly buffer understory microclimate. We tested whether such microrefugia structure understory plant communities within a regional climate-change refugium, where sheltered, groundwater-fed canyons have sustained a biogeographically distinctive flora since the Last Glacial Maximum. Location Temperate forest in the North American Great Plains, Nebraska, USA. Methods In a 20.2-ha forest inventory plot spanning a sharp topographic gradient, we quantified diversity, composition, and distributions and of understory woody and herbaceous plants across seven functional groups along fine-scale topographic, light, and soil moisture gradients. Results Woody species density and richness were significantly higher within sheltered microrefugia in canyon bottoms and on forested slopes and strongly decreased with increasing canopy openness, whereas C4 grass richness was highest along the exposed, high-light forest-prairie ecotone, reflecting divergent functional group responses to microclimate buffering. Soil moisture structured richness across functional groups: woody plant and C3 grass richness peaked at moisture extremes, sedge richness at intermediate moisture variability, and C4 grass richness declined with increasing moisture variability. Both woody and herbaceous understory plants showed strong variation in composition with topography; in particular, woody seedlings and graminoids exhibited strong species turnover with increasing elevation. Main Conclusions These results demonstrate that topographically driven microrefugia support disproportionate understory biodiversity and suggest that protecting both regional refugia and finer-scale microrefugia will be critical for conserving plant communities, including species documented exclusively in microrefugia, as macroclimate continues to change.

Premise of the study: Doryopteris J.Sm. is a genus of dry-adapted ferns found widely across the southern hemisphere and the tropics. In the Hawaiian Islands, the genus is represented by four endemic species and one putative hybrid. Two of the endemic species (D. decora and D. decipiens) are widespread across all major islands, while two (D. angelica and D. takeuchii) are federally and state-listed endangered single-island endemics.We aimed to resolve the evolutionary relationships and biogeographic history of Hawaiian Doryopteris. Methods: We used a target-capture approach and the GoFlag 408 flagellate land plant probe set to sequence more than 400 nuclear loci for 40 Hawaiian and 29 non-Hawaiian individuals in Doryopteris and the related genera Lytoneuron and Ormopteris. After processing the sequences into alignments and single nucleotide polymorphism sites, we performed phylogenetic inference and population-level principal component analyses. Key results: We infer that Hawaiian Doryopteris are monophyletic and are nested within the pantropical species D. concolor. Within Hawai'i, clades and clusters of individuals correspond to geographical, geological, and climatological factors, more so than species identifications, with a few exceptions. We posit that Hawaiian Doryopteris represents an incipient radiation at the very earliest stages of divergence, and that budding speciation has led to non-monophyly of several taxa. Conclusions Our inference using genome-wide sequencing data sheds light on the complex evolutionary history of Hawaiian Doryopteris. Overall, the phylogeny of Hawaiian Doryopteris shows strong links with geographical, geological, and climatological processes and little with morphological evolution.

Abstract Habitat configuration influences population connectivity and, consequently, genetic structure. River networks provide heterogeneous, hierarchically arranged environments that shift drastically from upstream to downstream. We compared congeneric species across Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, emphasizing longitudinal replacement (upstream to downstream) and the rarely studied wet rock (hygropetric) habitats. We surveyed six rivers on the Muroto Peninsula, Japan, qualitatively sampling aquatic insects at 63 sites. Cluster analysis based on the environmental data classified surveyed sites into four clusters. We analyzed a total of 10 species from four genera that exhibit longitudinal replacement patterns within genera. Genetic analyses based on the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I region revealed that upstream species showed higher genetic diversity than downstream species. In contrast, species adapted to hygropetric exhibited the lowest genetic differentiation among all habitat types. A novel contribution of this study is the inclusion of hygropetric species. The surprisingly low differentiation in hygropetric species suggests high connectivity, similar to lentic species. By comparing congeneric taxa across orders within environmentally similar rivers, we reduce phylogenetic and environmental confounds, strengthening inference that habitat configuration and dispersal traits jointly shape genetic structure. These findings provide a new perspective on riverine spatial ecology and underscore the importance of microhabitat-aware comparisons for evolutionary inference.

Understanding spatial and temporal variation in community composition is central to protecting and monitoring biodiversity. Similarity in the composition of two communities decreases along spatial and temporal gradients, a relationship known as distance decay. Comparing distance-decay relationships across taxonomic, functional, and bioclimatic facets of diversity provides a means of interrogating niche-based versus neutral influences on community assembly. Furthermore, the context in which these facets yield overlapping or complementary information about global change impacts remains poorly understood. In this study, we examined spatiotemporal distance-decay relationships for taxonomic, functional, and bioclimatic facets of alpine plant diversity leveraging elevation gradients on five peaks in the White Mountains, California, USA, sampled at 3-4 time points between 2007 and 2024. Using multivariate Bayesian beta regression models, we estimated the slopes of elevation distance decay over multiple surveys and across taxonomic, functional and bioclimatic diversity to understand how spatial distance-decay relationships are changing through time and across different facets of diversity. We found strong spatial distance decay of taxonomic similarity across all peaks, with the highest elevation peak showing the strongest decay. Functional and bioclimatic similarities decayed more weakly than taxonomic similarity, suggesting environmental filtering shapes trait and niche distributions. Critically, spatial decay patterns showed no temporal signal across facets of diversity, indicating community stasis rather than biotic homogenization or differentiation. This study adds further evidence that xeric alpine plant communities are resisting climate change impacts through time.

Geographic isolation is a major driver of lineage divergence. However, strong ecological selection can promote reproductive isolation despite opportunities for gene flow in geographically continuous landscapes such as mountains. Here, we test whether ecological divergence across elevational gradients can promote speciation within a single mountain range. Integrating phylogenomic (ddRAD), morphological, and bioacoustic data, we test predictions of elevation-mediated parapatric speciation in Platymantis (Lahatnanguri) ground-dwelling frogs on Mindanao Island, Philippines. Phylogenomic analyses recovered an endemic radiation across neighboring mountain ranges and revealed a hierarchical pattern of diversification among three monophyletic lineages, with deeper divergence separating the mountain lineages Highland 1 and Highland 2 and more recent divergence occurring within a single mountain range. This topology identified a morphologically and acoustically distinct low-elevation lineage (<1,400 m a.s.l.) as closely related to the high-elevation Highland 1 lineage (>1,400 m a.s.l.), providing a natural test of divergence along an elevational gradient. The parapatric Lowland and Highland 1 lineages appear to have diverged relatively recently, as reflected in their shallow genome-wide differentiation, yet exhibit pronounced morphological and acoustic divergence. Population genomic analyses further recover discrete genomic clusters and no evidence of contemporary hybridization between the parapatric lineages, indicating independent evolutionary trajectories despite geographic continuity. Together, these findings are consistent with parapatric speciation along an elevational gradient and demonstrate how substantial phenotypic and reproductive-isolation divergence can accumulate despite limited genome-wide differentiation. More broadly, our results indicate that the exceptional biodiversity of oceanic archipelagos may arise not only from diversification among islands (and among mountains within islands) but also from lineage divergence along elevational gradients within mountains themselves. These empirical results support the biological plausibility of parapatric speciation within single mountain systems and highlight an underrecognized mechanism contributing to biodiversity in topographically complex oceanic archipelagos.

1. Plant populations at high elevation persist near their physiological limits, and treeline position is one of the clearest expressions of this constraint. In many mountain regions, however, this limit reflects historical land use as much as climate. Treeline shift is most often tracked as the displacement of a boundary line (1D) overlooking structural changes only visible when the ecotone is analysed as a surface (2D). 2. We reconstructed treeline ecotone dynamics at nine sites in the Italian Alps using aerial imagery from 1954 and 2017. At each site we detected the timberline and tree species line, quantified elevational displacement, and measured ecotonal surface change, relating them to climatic, land-use, and topographic predictors. 3. Both boundaries advanced upslope at all nine sites, with timberlines shifting faster (1.6 m/yr) than tree species lines (1.1 m/yr). This decoupled velocity caused the ecotonal surface to contract by ~17%. Land-use variables consistently explained more variance than climatic ones. 4. Land-use legacy and abandonment have a major role in shaping treeline dynamics. Boundary displacement reveals vegetation advance at both margins, while the surface view reveals concurrent narrowing of the habitat available for tree establishment. Both perspectives are needed to fully characterize how plant populations respond to shifting limiting factors at the treeline ecotone.

Gene flow between diverging species can reshuffle genomic variation and greatly influence the speciation process, sometimes reinforcing, sometimes eroding species boundaries. However, the effect of ecological and historical processes on the patterns of introgression remains poorly understood. Here, we focus on the evolutionary history of Heliconius besckei, a geographically restricted butterfly endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, together with the mimetic H. melpomene nanna, the sympatric non-mimetic H. ethilla narcaea, and its closely related H. numata robigus. Using whole-genome sequencing, genome-wide tests of introgression, demographic modelling and palaeoclimatic species distribution models, we tested the extent and timing of interspecific gene flow in relation to mimicry, ecological context, and changes in geographic overlap. Despite strong genomic differentiation among the four focal Heliconius species, we detected widespread signatures of interspecific gene flow, greatly influenced by geographical overlap. Demographic models including post-divergence gene flow were better supported than strict-isolation models. In addition, genome-wide introgression analyses showed more numerous and larger candidate introgressed regions between H. besckei and H. ethilla narcaea, consistent with recurrent opportunities for exchange between these currently sympatric species. Species distribution models further recovered repeated expansions of suitable habitat for H. besckei during cold periods, providing a potential geographic context for secondary contact within the Atlantic Forest. Together, our results reveal recurrent gene flow occurring under different temporal, geographic, and potentially selective contexts, and show that the evolutionary history of a geographically restricted lineage can be shaped by repeated genetic exchange while substantial species differentiation is maintained.

The genus Phakellia comprises predominantly fan-shaped deep-sea sponges, but its species diversity and boundaries remain unresolved. Here, we use an integrative approach combining morphological and molecular data to investigate the Phakellia robusta species complex and describe two new species, Phakellia pallida sp. nov. and Phakellia pusilla sp. nov. Overlap in external and spicular morphology makes these taxa challenging to identify. Molecular analyses based on mitochondrial (cox1) and nuclear (28S) markers support the recognition of the three taxa as distinct species, and reveal their close evolutionary relationship. The two new species co-occur in the NE Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, with overlapping depth ranges, although P. pallida sp. nov. is generally found at greater depths. Our results also suggest that several previous records of P. robusta from the Mediterranean and southern parts of the NE Atlantic may instead correspond to either P. pallida sp. nov. or P. pusilla sp. nov., indicating that its distribution requires reassessment. In addition, a group I intron previously reported in the cox1 gene of P. robusta was polymorphically detected at the same insertion site in some, but not all, individuals of P. pusilla sp. nov., but it was absent from P. pallida sp. nov. individuals. Overall, our results reveal pseudocryptic diversity within Phakellia and highlight the value of integrative approaches for resolving species boundaries and reassessing deep-sea sponge diversity and distributions.

Species are dramatically shifting their geographical ranges, yet the consequences of these spatial redistributions on species interactions have not been examined at broad spatial and temporal scales. Here, we investigate how the redistribution of species abundance over the past 50 years affects the potential for predator-prey interactions among North American birds. We first predict potential predator-prey interactions based on existing data and functional traits, then construct a novel, abundance-weighted metric of interaction potential for each pair of predator and prey in local communities. Across North America, the potential for predator-prey interactions has been increasing over time. We further show that this widespread increasing trend in interaction potentials is mostly driven by higher abundances of predator species. The spatial redistributions of predators and prey lead to turnover of interactions within local communities, and the turnover is less associated with changes in climate but more associated with human-induced land use changes. Our novel approach and results highlight the importance of considering traits, abundance, and species interactions - including known and potential interactions - when studying the ecological consequences of species range shifts.

Understanding when species diversification and phenotypic evolution are coupled remains a central challenge in macroevolution. Such coupling may depend on the traits considered, phenotypic integration, or the geographic context in which diversification occurs. Here, we investigate these relationships in Ithomiini, a diverse Neotropical butterfly tribe whose diversification is strongly associated with the Andes-Amazonia system. We quantified forewing and hindwing size and shape for 1,618 individuals representing 291 species using geometric morphometrics, and combined these data with phylogenetic comparative methods, diversification-rate estimates, and spatial analyses of species distributions. Evolutionary rate shifts were largely trait- and wing-specific, indicating limited coupling between forewing and hindwing evolution. Across the phylogeny, wing size evolution and extant wing size were not associated with species diversification, nor was hindwing shape evolution. By contrast, forewing shape evolutionary rates showed a positive association with diversification. Spatial analyses revealed that this coupling was geographically concentrated in the Andes, where high diversification rates coincided with elevated forewing size and shape diversity and increased forewing evolutionary rates. Hindwing diversity, by contrast, more closely tracked phylogenetic diversity and showed weaker or opposing relationships with diversification. Our results show that diversification and phenotypic evolution in Ithomiini are neither generally coupled nor fully independent, but linked in trait-specific and geographically structured ways. More broadly, they highlight the need to decompose complex phenotypes and integrate spatial context when testing macroevolutionary coupling.

Resting metabolic rate, the basal energy required for an organism's maintenance, is central to predicting the eco-evolutionary consequences of environmental and anthropogenic pressures on marine ectotherms. Yet, direct measurements remain extremely scarce, covering less than 1% of marine fish species. Building on the Pace Of Life Syndrome (POLS) hypothesis, which posits a positive correlation between metabolism and life-history speed, we inferred temperature- and mass-specific resting metabolic rate for 18,214 fish species (16,998 Teleostei and 1,216 Elasmobranchii). Estimates were derived from relationships with 15 functional traits and phylogeny using phylogenetic structural equation modelling, a novel approach combining phylogenetic comparative methods with structural equation models. Cross-validations indicated high predictive performance, although some clades require cautious interpretation due to limited empirical data. In line with expectations from life-history theory, ecological niche and morphology, species with the highest metabolic rates were small, narrow, shallow-bodied, and long-jawed pelagic fish with high mortality, short lifespan and rapid growth - traits typical of small epipelagics. The metabolic rate variation aligned with the slow-fast life-history continuum, supporting the POLS hypothesis, but was equally explained by reproductive strategy: highly fecund, fast species exhibited the highest metabolic rate independent of mass and temperature, whereas low-fecundity slow species had the lowest. By filling a critical physiological data gap, our dataset provides a foundation to test long-standing ecological and evolutionary hypotheses such as POLS, and offers a powerful resource to improve models of species and community responses to climate change and exploitation, ultimately supporting physiology-informed ecosystem management.

Extreme climate events are rapidly reshaping ecosystems and contributing to biodiversity loss, yet their long-term impacts remain poorly understood, particularly in marine systems. In 2011, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) on the west coast of Australia drove declines in habitat-forming plants and across taxa spanning multiple trophic levels. Shark Bay, home to an iconic Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population, endured temperatures 3-5{degrees}C above long-term means, triggering catastrophic seagrass loss. Using 20 years (2003-2023) of dolphin photo-identification data, we fitted a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model to estimate annual, age-class specific survival probabilities, abundance and recruitment rate, and their association with MHW-mediated seagrass loss in the western (WSB) and eastern (ESB) gulfs of Shark Bay. Adult survival declined markedly, from 0.99 (0.98-1.00) pre-MHW to 0.85 (0.79-0.90) post-MHW in WSB, and from 0.96 (0.92-0.98) to 0.89 (0.85-0.95) in ESB, remaining below pre-MHW levels for several years, while juvenile and calf survival declined in both gulfs to a lesser extent. Recruitment declined in both gulfs and, although recovery was evident in WSB from 2019 onward, continued to decline in ESB until the end of the study. These sustained demographic declines drove substantial reductions in population growth and abundance in both WSB (39%) and ESB (36%). Demographic changes were associated with seagrass loss, here a proxy for habitat and prey availability, with clearest support for adult survival in WSB and a two-year-lagged recruitment response in ESB. This pathway is likely to operate across diverse ecosystems as climate change drives increasing loss of habitat-forming species. The severity and duration of these demographic impacts illustrate that habitat change can cascade through trophic systems to overwhelm demographic resilience in upper-trophic species. This has negative implications for even long-lived, K-selected species, whose slow demographic recovery may not keep pace with the accelerating frequency and intensity of climate disturbance.

Climate affects biological processes and organisms. It is extensively recorded, and its effects are frequently studied. Climatic variables are recorded as time series of measurements, but these are often summarized as long-term averages, throwing away biologically relevant information. Subsequent analyses can therefore miss important climate effects or suffer from low predictive power. Here, we propose a new method, StatClim, inferring the most informative climatic summary from the data. Instead of taking a fixed arbitrary summary of a time series, StatClim automatically estimates the beginning and width of a climatic window and simultaneously calculates data aggregation, which best predicts a response variable. We implemented the proposed approach as a Bayesian hierarchical model in Stan. We illustrated the potential of StatClim on published data on mast seeding of Fagus sylvatica. StatClim correctly identified known climatic windows relevant for this tree species, but also uncovered that mast seeding is triggered by high temperatures within these windows. We demonstrated flexibility of the model to account for complex data structures, we ran power analysis showing the ability of the model to identify climatic effects even with modest datasets, and we evaluated its false positive rate, which is lower than 0.01. We discuss the advantages and limitations of StatClim. Compared to existing alternatives, it is suitable for hypothesis testing and offers important advances, such as estimation of the type of aggregation. In combination with existing methods, StatClim will facilitate data-driven use of climatic and microclimatic data and therefore discovering so far unknown climatic effects on biological processes and ecosystem functioning.

Aim: To test whether individual movement mechanisms inferred from animal tracking data can be scaled up to explain landscape-scale patterns of population density and improve predictions of population redistribution under future environmental change. Location: Texas Gulf Coast, USA Time Period: 2009-2018 Major Taxa Studied: Whooping Crane (Grus americana) Methods: We parameterized individual-level step-selection functions using 14,898 GPS locations from 22 Whooping Cranes and propagated the resulting movement and habitat-selection mechanisms across the landscape to derive steady-state distributions of space use. We compared these movement-informed predictions with correlative species distribution models fitted to the same data. Predictions were evaluated using withheld tracking observations and fully independent population-level aerial-survey data. We then projected both approaches under sea-level-rise scenarios to assess how future habitat loss and fragmentation alter crane space use. Results: Movement mechanisms derived from individual-level tracking data captured the mechanistic dependence of population density on habitat quality and spatial configuration. When projected across the landscape, these mechanisms reproduced fully independently observed density patterns and outperformed conventional species distribution models. Because predictions arose from movement mechanisms rather than occurrence-environment correlations, movement-informed models also captured the effects of habitat reconfiguration under sea-level rise. They projected pronounced population redistribution and an expansion of core space-use areas of up to 80% which conventional models missed. Main Conclusions: Individual movement mechanisms derived from biologging data can scale up to explain current population structure and predict future redistribution under environmental change. By mechanistically accounting for how habitat configuration constrains accessibility, movement-informed models reveal severe impacts of fragmentation that are missed by conventional distribution models. Rapidly expanding biologging datasets therefore offer a scalable basis for connecting individual behavior to macroecological patterns and improving biodiversity forecasts in changing landscapes.

Climate change will alter habitat suitability for plant communities in mountain ecosystems of the Western Himalaya. There will be contrasting magnitudes and spatial configurations of these changes for different plant species, and it is an important question how to translate these contrasts into effective climate-proof multi-species conservation planning. This study assessed current habitat associations and projected changes in suitable habitat for two contrasting species, Meconopsis aculeata and Rhododendron campanulatum, in Himachal Pradesh, India. Field surveys and spatially filtered occurrence records were combined with MaxEnt modelling using 10 non-collinear environmental predictors. Habitat suitability was projected to 2050 and 2070 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 using HadGEM3-GC31-LL. Field observations showed contrasting habitat associations, with M. aculeata occurring mainly in open alpine herbaceous communities and R. campanulatum in subalpine woody communities. Elevation was an important predictor for both species while climatic predictors contributed differently to their relative importance and response patterns. Future projections indicated reductions in suitable habitat of approximately 25% for M. aculeata and 27-28% for R. campanulatum. Habitat-change maps showed heterogeneous patterns of loss, gain and persistence rather than uniform contraction, and centroid displacement remained small (7.7-8.5 km). We performed proximity analyses to show which currently suitable areas are most close to areas of future gain, in order to support the design of climate-proof protected areas. We discuss how interspecific differences in response are relevant to multi-species conservation planning that considers the spatial relationship between current high-suitability areas and the gain, loss and redistribution of future suitable habitat.